A Physically Based Statistical Model With the Parameterized Topographic Effect for Predicting the Weakening of Tropical Cyclones After Landfall Over China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is important but challenging. In this study, a physically based algebraic decay model for predicting TC weakening after landfall over China introduced, which assumes the rate proportional to square maximum near-surface wind speed. model, parameter including topographic effect by modifying surface drag coefficient with normalized terrain height determined minimizing forecast errors all landfalling TCs mainland during 1980–2020. Results show that considered performs better than commonly used exponential China, especially when move further inland. This new has time-dependent along track due variation, different from previous model.